Till 16th Dec 2010, 45 year old Mohamed Bouazizi, a petty street vendor, lived a life of anonymity. Little did he know that he would be awarded Person of the Year 2011 by The Times and bestowed with Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought 2011 by the European Parliament. It was, afterall, his self-immolation bid on 17th Dec (which eventually proved to be fatal) in Tunisia that sparked off an "Arab Spring" across Middle-East and North Africa.
Following the success in Tunisia, clarion calls against dictatorship and autocracy were given in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen et al. Egypt is overseeing the last phase of elections; Libya is already transitioning to be a democracy, Morocco has a democratic government at its helm now; Jordan has a prime minister and the King has announced move to British style of government; Yemen's president has announced that he or his son are not running for next elections.
Syria, however, stands out. 11 months and 5000 deaths(UN estimates) have failed to make any headway to replace the 40 year rule of the Assad family. The Arab League acted. But the fact that there have been 400 deaths in the presence of Arab League Monitors and that in an instance the monitors themselves were thumped and beaten highlight their helplessness.
But why, the West, which cries it's heart out at any human rights violation anywhere and which sprang to action in Libya with astounding alacrity, is playing deaf and dumb in Syria?
The geopolitics of Middle East has the answer to this conundrum.
For quite some time now, a cold war has been brewing in the Middle East between Shia-led Iran and Sunni-led Saudi Arabia for establishing hegemony in the region. While Syria and Lebanon are in Iran's camp, UAE and Bahrain align with Saudi Arabia.
If the West Acts: Syria has been on the forefront of championing a cause that finds resonance across the Arab world - that of Palestine. It nurtures Hamas and Hezbollah which frequently bomb Israel. Any action by West can have two unintended consequences: Firstly, the West, which has till now been successful in creating factions in the Arab world, will suddenly give them a rallying point, increase cynicism for the West and the unstable, newly democratic Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen might prove to be a fertile haven for recruiting insurgents. Secondly, although militarily dwarfed when compared to West, the Shia camp may not hesitate to retaliate on economic interests of the West by attacking vital oil installations in key West allies - Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Needless to say, the oil crisis will plunge the world economy in chaos in no time.
There is another spillover. US and France are going to polls within a year. Syria has a sizeable Christian population (10%) which is well protected under the current secular government of Assad regime. By uprooting a government favorable to Christians or by flexing its muscles on a state which the Arabs hold dear, the incumbents risk the animosity of both Christian and Muslim voters.
If the West doesn't Act: Inertia by the West has the consequences of a Civil war. There have been defections from the army and unlike most other revolutions, the Syrian one has been violent. The external powers have already been dragged. The Turks, by harboring the Syrian opposition, are perhaps in the process of scoring brownie points amongst EU counterparts to bolster their case for European assimilation - which remains illusive till now. Iran would not let its biggest ally in the region slip away without a fight and Saudi Arabia will do exactly the opposite and bolster the opposition. Iran can in turn try to weaken Sunni camp by fostering revolutions in Bahrain (like the pro-democracy Shia led protests which were crushed by Saudi forces) and Saudi Arabia. The fall of Syria, is strategically very important to Israel as it significantly reduces Iran's dominance in the region and cuts off supplies to Hezbollah and Hamas. So Mossad might as well eye a mischief.
The combination of violent uprisings, external interference and political alignments suggests that Syria might be drawn into a period of utter chaos and Middle East embroiled in a flare up. And an unstable Middle East is not in world's favor - politically, socially and economically.
As the world ponders, it ain't exactly a 'Spring' for the Syrians !
P.S: This article is first in the series "Living on the Edge" highlighting the precarious geopolitical and economic situation we are currently experiencing. Next in line is "War on Terror: A Myopic Victory?".
Now it is editorial quality!
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