Living on the Edge -II: War on Terror - A Myopic Victory?

On 18th December, 2011 the last convoy of US troops left Iraq. Next is Afghanistan where a complete troop withdrawal is envisaged by 2014. Under US occupation, both Iraq and Afghanistan transitioned from autocracies to democracies. With both Saddam and Osama bin-Laden dead and the Taliban and Al-Qaeda supposedly significantly weakened, US boasts of a victory and perhaps nearing an end to the "War on Terror". Only if it could!

The Afghan War: In October 2001, US and its allies launched their offensive in Afghanistan in response to Sep 11 terrorist attacks. It was widely perceived that the world's best defense forces would launch a blitzkreig against a bunch of ill-organized, ill-equipped militias and will fume the terrorists out of their holes quickly. A decade and 3000 casualties later, War on Terror in Afghanistan has turned out to be longest engagement for US forces, second only to Vietnam War. The economic crisis and political compulsions have forced US to look for quick-fix solutions. A state which had no policy of negotiating with terrorists is looking for political settlement with Taliban. And with Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar for progressing on "peace-talks" with Washington, the plan for troop withdrawal by 2014 is set in motion. So basically, what the Taliban need to do is lay low for next couple of years, announce a cease-fire or something, re-group and re-arm in the process, create a perceived sense of calm and just when the NATO forces leave Afghanistan, lay seige to Kabul ! NATO's official assessments about Afghan National Army and police that they are unwilling to engage, almost illiterate, drug addicts, Taliban sympathizers, highly corrupt and grossly incompetent, further lend credence to my queer notions. Afghanistan, thus, will continue to simmer.

The Iraq War: Iraq was invaded in March 2003 on the pretext that it possesses WMDs and that it nurtured Al-Qaeda. In January 2005 however, White House formally acknowledged that no WMDs were found in Iraq. The Al Qaeda link was also a false propaganda as Saddam and bin-Laden were ideological opposites, with the former considering Islamic extremism a threat to his regime. In post Saddam era, in absence of a central authority and with people increasingly inimical to a foreign occupation, ethnic tensions and terrorism began to unravel. Shias car-bombing Sunni strongholds and processions and vice-versa make frequent headlines. The fragile power sharing agreement between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds- the three main ethnic communities in Iraq, was tested to the hilt just a day after US forces left Iraq when the Shia PM issued warrants against the Sunni Vice President, accusing him of abetting in terrorist activities. A country left behind, dilapidated, torn in ethnic strife and with a sense of bitterness that ultimately the War on Terror was not about Saddam but about establishing hegemony in the region and for Black Gold - suggest that war in Iraq is far from over; not for the Iraqis at least.

All this while, when War on Terror is/was being fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, a few other developments are happening concurrently. Various splinter groups of Taliban and Al Qaeda have carved a safe sanctuary in Pakistan. In Nigeria, "Boko Haram", a terrorist group with strong ties to Al Qaeda has ravaged the Christian dominated North in a series of attacks. In Yemen, Al Qaeda is on offensive and is just 100 miles from capital city of Sanna. Al Shabaab, an al Qaeda-linked group that controls much of central and southern Somalia, is now luring people with US, UK and European passports into its fold (Read: Jihadi Tourism). Elsewhere, Arab Spring has left the Middle-East and North Africa in a state of flux. There are uncertainties over transition of power and the successors in Egypt, Yemen and Syria. The controversial Muslim Brotherhood is emerging as a potent force across many Arab Spring countries but whether it would follow a right-wing or a more moderate approach remains unclear. The hardliner Salafists have gained handsomely in Egypt and Tunisia. In Libya, the National Transition Council is ineffective and no concrete steps have been taken to confiscate weapons from the militias or assimilate them in armed forces.

All these developments on Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Africa and Middle East look disparate but when seen in conjugation with each other on a world map present a completely different picture. 

"Failed States Index" World Map with colour coding; 'Alert' signifies most failed states 

There is only one observation: As of today, stretching from Pakistan in West Asia to North and Central Africa, is a homogeneous landmass characterized by discontented youth - most of whom harbor animosity for the West for its military misdemeanors, volatile governments and uncertain future - just the right kind of set up that breeds terrorism.

With the fall of dictators in the Middle East and with the dawn of Islamic democracy, political Islam has never been so contiguous and so powerful since the Middle Ages and the way forward that it chooses - right wing or a moderate one, will have spill over effects in Central Africa(which has a delicate balance of Christian and Muslim populations) and serious ramifications on rest of the world. Infusing a sense of constructive optimism amongst the natives should be a priority for the governments but there is a bigger menacing behemoth that needs to be challenged - that of clash of civilizations - between Christianity & Islam. (And any misdemeanor on Iran can also provide the necessary spark!). Because when civilizations clash, you are opposing not humans but an ideology, and there are no winners in such a war, only losers on either side !

Living on the Edge: The Syrian Conundrum !

Till 16th Dec 2010, 45 year old Mohamed Bouazizi, a petty street vendor, lived a life of anonymity. Little did he know that he would be awarded Person of the Year 2011 by The Times and bestowed with Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought 2011 by the European Parliament. It was, afterall, his self-immolation bid on 17th Dec (which eventually proved to be fatal) in Tunisia that sparked off an "Arab Spring" across Middle-East and North Africa.

Following the success in Tunisia, clarion calls against dictatorship and autocracy were given in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen et al. Egypt is overseeing the last phase of elections; Libya is already transitioning to be a democracy, Morocco has a democratic government at its helm now; Jordan has a prime minister and the King has announced move to British style of government; Yemen's president has announced that he or his son are not running for next elections. 

Syria, however, stands out. 11 months and 5000 deaths(UN estimates) have failed to make any headway to replace the 40 year rule of the Assad family. The Arab League acted. But the fact that there have been 400 deaths in the presence of  Arab League Monitors and that in an instance the monitors themselves were thumped and beaten highlight their helplessness. 

But why, the West, which cries it's heart out at any human rights violation anywhere and which sprang to action in Libya with astounding alacrity, is playing deaf and dumb in Syria? 

The geopolitics of Middle East has the answer to this conundrum.

For quite some time now, a cold war has been brewing in the Middle East between Shia-led Iran and Sunni-led Saudi Arabia for establishing hegemony in the region. While Syria and Lebanon are in Iran's camp, UAE and Bahrain align with Saudi Arabia.  

If the West Acts: Syria has been on the forefront of championing a cause that finds resonance across the Arab world - that of Palestine. It nurtures Hamas and Hezbollah which frequently bomb Israel. Any action by West can have two unintended consequences: Firstly, the West, which has till now been successful in creating factions in the Arab world, will suddenly give them a rallying point, increase cynicism for the West and the unstable, newly democratic Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen might prove to be a fertile haven for recruiting insurgents. Secondly, although militarily dwarfed when compared to West, the Shia camp may not hesitate to retaliate on economic interests of the West by attacking vital oil installations in key West allies - Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Needless to say, the oil crisis will plunge the world economy in chaos in no time.

There is another spillover. US and France are going to polls within a year. Syria has a sizeable Christian population (10%) which is well protected under the current secular government of Assad regime. By uprooting a government favorable to Christians or by flexing its muscles on a state which the Arabs hold dear, the incumbents risk the animosity of both Christian and Muslim voters.

If the West doesn't Act:  Inertia by the West has the consequences of a Civil war. There have been defections from the army and unlike most other revolutions, the Syrian one has been violent. The external powers have already been dragged. The Turks, by harboring the Syrian opposition, are perhaps in the process of scoring brownie points amongst EU counterparts to bolster their case for European assimilation - which remains illusive till now. Iran would not let its biggest ally in the region slip away without a fight and Saudi Arabia will do exactly the opposite and bolster the opposition. Iran can in turn try to weaken Sunni camp by fostering revolutions in Bahrain (like the pro-democracy Shia led protests which were crushed by Saudi forces) and Saudi Arabia. The fall of Syria, is strategically very important to Israel as it significantly reduces Iran's dominance in the region and cuts off supplies to Hezbollah and Hamas. So Mossad might as well eye a mischief. 

The combination of violent uprisings, external interference and political alignments suggests that Syria might be drawn into a period of utter chaos and Middle East embroiled in a flare up. And an unstable Middle East is not in world's favor - politically, socially and economically.

As the world ponders, it ain't exactly a 'Spring' for the Syrians !

P.S: This article is first in the series "Living on the Edge" highlighting the precarious geopolitical and economic situation we are currently experiencing. Next in line is "War on Terror: A Myopic Victory?".