Young India Erupts in Anger: The Buck Stops Where?

In wake of massive protests over the gang rape in Delhi, Dr. ManMohan Singh in his statement told the nation that the govt is taking strong steps to make it safer for women and children in India. Quite paradoxically,  though the speech was supposed to instill some kind of fear in the minds of maniacs who commit such crimes, it was actually the PM who looked more scared while assuring the nation. Or as Reuters put it fittingly,"Prime Minister Manmohan Singh offered an anguished and brief reaction over Christmas, in which he sounded like a man who felt every one of his eight years in office and 80 years of life...".

She finally succumbed to her injuries...leaving India...Angered..Ashamed...

And not without reason. The people who are supposed to be in charge of things just seem unruffled by the protests. Systemic failure is just routine to them. And thus, people's frustration at things not being right is palpable. But...Angered & Ashamed...we have been earlier as well, atleast on two occasions - The first one against 27% reservation for the OBCs in institutes of higher education and the second one was the anti-corruption campaign. While the first one was stifled by an equally stupid solution as was the proposal itself, the second one also has failed to yield any results...yet.

As a response to the current outrage, the govt has promised fast track courts & daily hearings, have set up a committee to give suggestions on how to make laws more stringent, probably incorporating a death penalty as well. That was pretty much what was being demanded by the protestors as well. How I wish stricter laws was a panacea for every evil in the society. 

We can set up fast track courts but where do we get the judges to pronounce the verdict? Who nabs the culprits? And just because people's anger had reached a tipping point on increasing number of rape cases, doesn't mean that they are less bothered about other crimes. What happens to the existing backlog of other cases? What about police reforms? What about judicial reforms? Just see the damning figures below:

• There are 30 million cases pending across numerous courts in India, which going by the current rate may take 350-400 years to be resolved. Even The Hon. Supreme Court of India had a backlog of approx. 62000 cases as of May 2012.
• There are only 11 judges per million population against the recommended norm of 50.
• The number of police stations not having a telephone facility were 307 as of 01.01.2008 which increased to 350 as of 01.01.2011. The number of police stations not having wireless sets was 107 as on 01.10.2008 and as of 01.01.2011 as well. And surprise..surprise...most of the police stations without telephones were not in Naxal affected areas or areas with difficult terrain but in Punjab and UP. Add to it the telephones that are actually working. ( As an example: 50% of the police stations in Lucknow don't have working telephones. Read it here: http://www.deccanherald.com/content/291351/half-lucknows-police-stations-have.html ).
• "The actual availability of policement gets further reduced owing to vacancies running upto 24.85% as on 1.1.2011." This I quote from official figures from Bureau of Police Research & Development.

No, I'm not saying that strict laws don't do any good. They definitely act as deterrents  But by merely asking for stricter laws we are trying to cure the symptoms without identifying the cause. The malaise runs deeper. And that malaise is a deeply disconnected current political class, disconnected from masses, disconnected from real issues, disconnected from rest of the world. These are the people who oppose meritocracy because they have none; these are the people who oppose equality because they flourish in its absence;these are the people who promote nepotism because they themselves are a product of it (There are of course exceptions but just so very few). As a result a strange impotence has set in the system.  In each of three mobilizations, there was a tepid response by the political class; a total lack of intelligent solutions and a remorseless, blatant display of power on the innocents. This further sets on to prove that the existing set of politicians is just not cut out to take any sort of accountability for any of the ills that concern people the most.

The buck, therefore,stops with us. We have been angered; we have been ashamed; perhaps we should Act now! We need to be more participative in running of this country and not only through voting but also by also by looking at politics as a career; careers beyond engineering, sciences and commerce; careers in judiciary, police services, with NGOs, as activists, as journalists, careers in rural upliftment. We also need to think of this change as an evolution as well- an evolution of sensibilities, evolution of attitudes, evolution of outlook. Why's that " Higher education and income levels among families correspond paradoxically to greater female infant deaths" ( Read more about it here: http://www.abhishek-mahajan.com/2011/07/rich-educated-yet-primitive.html). Let's raise our voices in our homes. Let's stand up against our fathers, brothers, uncles, anyone who doesn't give the respect the women of our house deserve. Let's oppose any behavior that reeks of deep-rooted patriarchal and parochial mindset. Let's not encourage the weird set of questions or the side-profile and full profile shots  asked by prospective in-laws. Let's boycott the fairness creams. Let no one question a single woman or a single mother. Let no parents tell their daughter, " Yeh to mere bete jaisi hai". Let no one tell them, "Dhang ke kapde pehno".

Let's think and Act now; lest we forget what happened on 16th December 2012.

The Culpability of Silence !

After a brief lull, the war in Middle-East is on again...and just like always Israel and the West (US and its cronies) didn't shy away from repeating the old rhetoric about Israel's right to self-defense. I did not follow the previous conflicts between Israel and Palestine (or affiliate groups) but the latest one, I am following and with utter keenness. 

The Belligerent and The Defender: 
I was always bewildered to see, that despite the irony that Palestinians were forced to be refugees in their own country; despite Israel controlling/occupying 78% of the territory as opposed to UN mandated resolution of 56.47%; despite having unlawful Israeli settlements in occupied territories in West Bank, East Jerusalem; despite having a far superior military might (as opposed to slingshots/stones/petrol bombs and at best rockets); despite having an unrestrained support from the US for it's every action; how Palestine (or affiliated groups) was always portrayed as the aggressor and Israel's acts were always justified as Acts of Self Defense. So I was mighty pleased when a journalist at The Guardian finally got his guts together to say this about the present conflict "In fact, an examination of the sequence of events over the last month shows that Israel played the decisive role in the military escalation: from its attack on a Khartoum arms factory reportedly supplying arms to Hamas and the killing of 15 Palestinian fighters in late October, to the shooting of a mentally disabled Palestinian in early November, the killing of a 13 year-old in an Israeli incursion and, crucially, the assassination of the Hamas commander Ahmed Jabari last Wednesday during negotiations over a temporary truce." (Source:http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/20/palestinians-have-right-defend-themselves?CMP=twt_gu)

In fact Israeli belligerence is evident from quite some time now. It did withdraw its forces from Gaza under the Unilateral Disengagement Plan of 2005 but still continues to impose an economic and social blocade on Gaza. A report by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on Gaza says, “The whole of Gaza’s civilian population is being punished for acts for which they bear no responsibility. The closure therefore constitutes a collective punishment imposed in clear violation of Israel’s obligations under international humanitarian law”. A look at more recent events only proves that the belligerence has worsened often reeking of arrogance. In July 2012, when UNHRC decided to probe the implications of Israeli settlements in West Bank and East Jerusalem on the civil, political, economic rights of Palestinians, Israel refused access to the council's experts, even accusing the council of being biased against Israel! A recent white paper published by Israel foreign ministry stated that if Palestine wins an Observer status in UN (vote scheduled for 29 Nov), the only option they have is to topple the Mahmoud Abbas govt in Palestine. Israeli interior minister Eli Yishai's statements during the ongoing conflict read something like this ,"Destroy and damage infrastructure, public buildings and government buildings. We must make sure that Hamas will be spending many years rebuilding Gaza, and not attacking Israel."... “The goal of the operation is to send Gaza back to the Middle Ages..." . 

Crime against Humanity:

International humanitarian law and the Rome Statute permit belligerents to carry out proportionate attacks against military objectives, even when it is known that some civilian deaths or injuries will occur. A crime occurs if there is an intentional attack directed against civilians (principle of distinction) (Article 8(2)(b)(i)) or an attack is launched on a military objective in the knowledge that the incidental civilian injuries would be clearly excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage (principle of proportionality) (Article 8(2)(b)(iv).

Gaza is one of the world's most densely populated areas and children make a significantly high % of this population. It's no surprise then, that of the 150 Palestinians deaths, around half of them were civilians including 40 children. Media buildings and kindergartens (Oxfam's) were also not spared. Out of more than 800 rockets fired at Israel, 421 were intercepted by Irom Dome and the remaining managed to kill 5 Israelis. In view of these facts two things are pretty clear a) Hamas is terribly ill-equipped, ill-trained and disadvantaged to carry out any decisive attacks against Israel b) There is a clear violation of Article 8(2)(b)(iv) mentioned above.

It's a pity that while the world sees the rocket attacks by Hamas as an act of terror, acts of State terrorism that rely on excessive use of Apache gunships, F-16s and drones are so conveniently condoned. 

Obscure Motives?

May be there's more to conflict than what meets the eye! Presidential elections are due in Israel in Jan 2013. Elections were initially scheduled for October 2013 but were advanced as the budget for 2013 could not be finalized.

The present president Benjamin Netanyahu's approval ratings although higher than any of his competitors, are dipping (see chart below). He had to face some stiff public resistance in summer of 2011. Austerity measures announced in September this year were unpopular. There might be cuts on welfare programmes and government benefits in the next budget and the smaller religious parties are inimical to these measures. Also, it might not be possible to come to power without a coalition partner.

Source: http://www.jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain/category/netanyahu_approval

So a plan was hatched. Everytime there is an event that evokes national pride or security, the ratings go up. Be it the Flotilla issue, or release of Gilad Shalit by Hamas or Obama's  speech with unflinching  support to Israel. Netanyahu tried to drum up popular support for a direct action against suspected nuclear sites in Iran but perhaps due to Presidential elections in the Godfather's own backyard and due to continued opposition by Russia and China, the plan had to be averted. Switch to Plan B. Kill a Hamas top leader. Obviously, Hamas will retaliate. Use the retaliation as a perfect opportunity to showcase the new Iron Dome defense system. Whip up public frenzy. Win the elections hands down !

The Culpability of Silence:

Today, a cease fire has been brokered. But am sure it will not last longer. The reason is in the newsclip on Barack Obama's reaction to the ceasefire:

"US President Barack Obama "commended the [Israeli] Prime Minister for agreeing to the Egyptian ceasefire proposal - which the President recommended the Prime Minster do - while reiterating that Israel maintains the right to defend itself," according to a statement from the White House. Mr Obama said that the "United States would use the opportunity offered by a ceasefire to intensify efforts to help Israel address its security needs, especially the issue of the smuggling of weapons and explosives in to Gaza."

Once again today, Israel's security needs are addressed; but not a thought spared about the innocents  of Gaza. Once again today, the world refuses to see Israel 'also' as a belligerent. And once again today, the world is culpable...culpable of being Silent!

Everything against Israel is not Anti-Semitism; And speaking up against Israel's political policies is definitely not !

P.S: The EU, the UK, the US have recognized Syrian National Coalition as the "Legitimate representatives of the aspirations of the Syrian people" within 2 years. This despite the fact that Free Syrian Army has also been accused of committing war crimes, despite the fact that it's ranks are also being swelled by fundamentalists from all over the world. Why then is Hamas, which actually won a landslide victory in the previous Palestinian legislative elections in 2006, not a "Legitimate representative of the aspirations of the Palestinian people"?

The Felony of Monotheistic Fixation !

The battle lines for the most coveted residence on Raisina Hill have been drawn and with the kind of hullabaloo and surprises the Indian presidential elections seem to be more happening than the Presidential elections in France. Quite ironical, considering the fact that while the former will perform functions as perfunctory as reading speeches on Republic Day eve or addressing the joint sessions of the Parliament, the latter can very well change the way the Euro zone is going to look like a few years from now.

But the aim of this blog is not to take potshots at the farcical post of Indian president or in its election process. I was as nonchalant to the whole drama as the rest of the world is towards developments unfolding in Africa. However when the name of APJ was thrown in the ring, with all the media and online endorsements it generated, it did get me interested and my first reaction was like ... Him?Again?

I don't have any aversion towards him. He was perhaps the only one since my childhood, who restored some dignity to the whole thing during his tenure. But the issue is more about our tendency to idolize someone, looking upto him as the lone savior and elevating him to the status of some kind of monotheistic deity...with a complete disregard for other potential candidates, complete disregard for a logical reasoning and most of all complete disregard for even the 'One's age.

And this whole thing about idolizing someone is not restricted to the presidential elections alone.

The Metro Man: E.Sreedharan was brought out of retirement to start working for the ambitious Konkan Rail project. That successful endeavor led him to Delhi where he maintained his reputation and finished the first phase of Delhi Metro well on time. Poor chap would have thought he would get some rest but he was given extension after extension to see another couple of phases get completed. He was soon called for consultation for Hyderabad metro, Jaipur metro, Bangalore metro and almost every city which aspired for the metro. He 'finally' retired last year. But the obsession with the deity reached heights when this year Kerala CM said he wanted Sreedharan as the Chairman of Kochi Metro Rail Corporation. The guy is 80 now. Now that he's not there with DMRC will the bridges start collapsing or will there be infinite delays? A country as big and as hungry for infrastructure as India is definitely running on shoulders of more than one Sreedharan. More than 2 decades since he first retired and we still harp on one Sreedharan. In our pursuit of idolism either we have trampled upon numerous Sreedharans-in-making or have just closed our eyes to alternatives.

The 'Economist': This is perhaps the most cliched one. Ask anyone who is our best bet to handle our economy and the name crops up - MMS. Quite ironical considering the fact that the person seemed to have gained his 'charisma' to an act (liberalisation circa 1991) which was done more due to lack of options rather than by conviction. And had I.G.Patel (the first choice of Finance minister for Narasaimha Rao) accepted the offer, the charisma would have been his today. Anyways, riding on that charisma he was given the reins of the govt in 2004. He was hailed as many the best PM we could have and paeans were sung to him and to the trio of Montek, Chidu and MMS. Call it the Peter Principle at work or a complete disregard for a basic fact that you need administrators to run a country not technocrats, the expectations set in 2004 have been belied. And people with a rather humble background, with no fancy degrees and who can't speak  accented English have done  far better jobs in Gujarat and Bihar - both on administrative and economic fronts.

The 'Crusader': This one perhaps owes a lot to the media! From the dusty tracks of Ralegaon to being a nation wide phenomenon, it certainly inspires a case study. There was a deluge of supporters to the cause against corruption but things started turning personality driven when people started using the (much irritable) slogan "I Am Anna". I couldn't understand why I need to be Anna to fight this. This is my fight also and I will be myself.  The fallacy of this whole "I Am Anna" campaign was exposed when some wrong doings (malicious or truthful) on part of Anna or his team are brought to light and suddenly people don't want to be Anna anymore. I wonder what happened to all those "Anna" enthusiasts and their crusade against corruption.

The Bharat Ratna: The debate for Bharat Ratna is opened to the public and the only question being asked is whether Sachin should be given the highest civilian honor or not. Even the criteria is amended to accomodate sportspersons. But am sure there would be better contenders than awarding it to someone who has achieved fame in a sport which is followed by a group of countries where the only names worth mentioning are Australia and England. At best he has been an entertainer for the masses, but then so is Salman Khan. Not surprisingly, there is no mention of any other sportsperson. There are some hushed voices for Dhyan Chand but am sure he will not get it - for he was not 'God' . 

I am too humble a soul to question the greatness of these greats. I am only questioning the attitude to look upon them as a perennial solution to all our problems. I'm only questioning the fixation to the One because it restricts debate, restricts meritocracy, restricts risk taking, restricts newness...restricts and opposes about anything which should be a feature of the vibrant democracy, a vibrant culture, a vibrant nation.

And that is why I call this fixation with the 'One' a Felony.

P.S: The whole hysteria about APJ as President provided the motivation for this blog and hence has been included. Its noteworthy that the whole thing seems to have suddenly died down after an initial rush.

Living on the Edge -II: War on Terror - A Myopic Victory?

On 18th December, 2011 the last convoy of US troops left Iraq. Next is Afghanistan where a complete troop withdrawal is envisaged by 2014. Under US occupation, both Iraq and Afghanistan transitioned from autocracies to democracies. With both Saddam and Osama bin-Laden dead and the Taliban and Al-Qaeda supposedly significantly weakened, US boasts of a victory and perhaps nearing an end to the "War on Terror". Only if it could!

The Afghan War: In October 2001, US and its allies launched their offensive in Afghanistan in response to Sep 11 terrorist attacks. It was widely perceived that the world's best defense forces would launch a blitzkreig against a bunch of ill-organized, ill-equipped militias and will fume the terrorists out of their holes quickly. A decade and 3000 casualties later, War on Terror in Afghanistan has turned out to be longest engagement for US forces, second only to Vietnam War. The economic crisis and political compulsions have forced US to look for quick-fix solutions. A state which had no policy of negotiating with terrorists is looking for political settlement with Taliban. And with Taliban agreeing to open a liaison office in Qatar for progressing on "peace-talks" with Washington, the plan for troop withdrawal by 2014 is set in motion. So basically, what the Taliban need to do is lay low for next couple of years, announce a cease-fire or something, re-group and re-arm in the process, create a perceived sense of calm and just when the NATO forces leave Afghanistan, lay seige to Kabul ! NATO's official assessments about Afghan National Army and police that they are unwilling to engage, almost illiterate, drug addicts, Taliban sympathizers, highly corrupt and grossly incompetent, further lend credence to my queer notions. Afghanistan, thus, will continue to simmer.

The Iraq War: Iraq was invaded in March 2003 on the pretext that it possesses WMDs and that it nurtured Al-Qaeda. In January 2005 however, White House formally acknowledged that no WMDs were found in Iraq. The Al Qaeda link was also a false propaganda as Saddam and bin-Laden were ideological opposites, with the former considering Islamic extremism a threat to his regime. In post Saddam era, in absence of a central authority and with people increasingly inimical to a foreign occupation, ethnic tensions and terrorism began to unravel. Shias car-bombing Sunni strongholds and processions and vice-versa make frequent headlines. The fragile power sharing agreement between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds- the three main ethnic communities in Iraq, was tested to the hilt just a day after US forces left Iraq when the Shia PM issued warrants against the Sunni Vice President, accusing him of abetting in terrorist activities. A country left behind, dilapidated, torn in ethnic strife and with a sense of bitterness that ultimately the War on Terror was not about Saddam but about establishing hegemony in the region and for Black Gold - suggest that war in Iraq is far from over; not for the Iraqis at least.

All this while, when War on Terror is/was being fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, a few other developments are happening concurrently. Various splinter groups of Taliban and Al Qaeda have carved a safe sanctuary in Pakistan. In Nigeria, "Boko Haram", a terrorist group with strong ties to Al Qaeda has ravaged the Christian dominated North in a series of attacks. In Yemen, Al Qaeda is on offensive and is just 100 miles from capital city of Sanna. Al Shabaab, an al Qaeda-linked group that controls much of central and southern Somalia, is now luring people with US, UK and European passports into its fold (Read: Jihadi Tourism). Elsewhere, Arab Spring has left the Middle-East and North Africa in a state of flux. There are uncertainties over transition of power and the successors in Egypt, Yemen and Syria. The controversial Muslim Brotherhood is emerging as a potent force across many Arab Spring countries but whether it would follow a right-wing or a more moderate approach remains unclear. The hardliner Salafists have gained handsomely in Egypt and Tunisia. In Libya, the National Transition Council is ineffective and no concrete steps have been taken to confiscate weapons from the militias or assimilate them in armed forces.

All these developments on Iraq, Afghanistan, Central Africa and Middle East look disparate but when seen in conjugation with each other on a world map present a completely different picture. 

"Failed States Index" World Map with colour coding; 'Alert' signifies most failed states 

There is only one observation: As of today, stretching from Pakistan in West Asia to North and Central Africa, is a homogeneous landmass characterized by discontented youth - most of whom harbor animosity for the West for its military misdemeanors, volatile governments and uncertain future - just the right kind of set up that breeds terrorism.

With the fall of dictators in the Middle East and with the dawn of Islamic democracy, political Islam has never been so contiguous and so powerful since the Middle Ages and the way forward that it chooses - right wing or a moderate one, will have spill over effects in Central Africa(which has a delicate balance of Christian and Muslim populations) and serious ramifications on rest of the world. Infusing a sense of constructive optimism amongst the natives should be a priority for the governments but there is a bigger menacing behemoth that needs to be challenged - that of clash of civilizations - between Christianity & Islam. (And any misdemeanor on Iran can also provide the necessary spark!). Because when civilizations clash, you are opposing not humans but an ideology, and there are no winners in such a war, only losers on either side !

Living on the Edge: The Syrian Conundrum !

Till 16th Dec 2010, 45 year old Mohamed Bouazizi, a petty street vendor, lived a life of anonymity. Little did he know that he would be awarded Person of the Year 2011 by The Times and bestowed with Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought 2011 by the European Parliament. It was, afterall, his self-immolation bid on 17th Dec (which eventually proved to be fatal) in Tunisia that sparked off an "Arab Spring" across Middle-East and North Africa.

Following the success in Tunisia, clarion calls against dictatorship and autocracy were given in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Jordan, Morocco, Yemen et al. Egypt is overseeing the last phase of elections; Libya is already transitioning to be a democracy, Morocco has a democratic government at its helm now; Jordan has a prime minister and the King has announced move to British style of government; Yemen's president has announced that he or his son are not running for next elections. 

Syria, however, stands out. 11 months and 5000 deaths(UN estimates) have failed to make any headway to replace the 40 year rule of the Assad family. The Arab League acted. But the fact that there have been 400 deaths in the presence of  Arab League Monitors and that in an instance the monitors themselves were thumped and beaten highlight their helplessness. 

But why, the West, which cries it's heart out at any human rights violation anywhere and which sprang to action in Libya with astounding alacrity, is playing deaf and dumb in Syria? 

The geopolitics of Middle East has the answer to this conundrum.

For quite some time now, a cold war has been brewing in the Middle East between Shia-led Iran and Sunni-led Saudi Arabia for establishing hegemony in the region. While Syria and Lebanon are in Iran's camp, UAE and Bahrain align with Saudi Arabia.  

If the West Acts: Syria has been on the forefront of championing a cause that finds resonance across the Arab world - that of Palestine. It nurtures Hamas and Hezbollah which frequently bomb Israel. Any action by West can have two unintended consequences: Firstly, the West, which has till now been successful in creating factions in the Arab world, will suddenly give them a rallying point, increase cynicism for the West and the unstable, newly democratic Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen might prove to be a fertile haven for recruiting insurgents. Secondly, although militarily dwarfed when compared to West, the Shia camp may not hesitate to retaliate on economic interests of the West by attacking vital oil installations in key West allies - Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Needless to say, the oil crisis will plunge the world economy in chaos in no time.

There is another spillover. US and France are going to polls within a year. Syria has a sizeable Christian population (10%) which is well protected under the current secular government of Assad regime. By uprooting a government favorable to Christians or by flexing its muscles on a state which the Arabs hold dear, the incumbents risk the animosity of both Christian and Muslim voters.

If the West doesn't Act:  Inertia by the West has the consequences of a Civil war. There have been defections from the army and unlike most other revolutions, the Syrian one has been violent. The external powers have already been dragged. The Turks, by harboring the Syrian opposition, are perhaps in the process of scoring brownie points amongst EU counterparts to bolster their case for European assimilation - which remains illusive till now. Iran would not let its biggest ally in the region slip away without a fight and Saudi Arabia will do exactly the opposite and bolster the opposition. Iran can in turn try to weaken Sunni camp by fostering revolutions in Bahrain (like the pro-democracy Shia led protests which were crushed by Saudi forces) and Saudi Arabia. The fall of Syria, is strategically very important to Israel as it significantly reduces Iran's dominance in the region and cuts off supplies to Hezbollah and Hamas. So Mossad might as well eye a mischief. 

The combination of violent uprisings, external interference and political alignments suggests that Syria might be drawn into a period of utter chaos and Middle East embroiled in a flare up. And an unstable Middle East is not in world's favor - politically, socially and economically.

As the world ponders, it ain't exactly a 'Spring' for the Syrians !

P.S: This article is first in the series "Living on the Edge" highlighting the precarious geopolitical and economic situation we are currently experiencing. Next in line is "War on Terror: A Myopic Victory?".