"Tunisian dictator flees country after weeks of public protests"; "Hezbollah moves towards Lebanon govt. control"; "Millions march in Egypt against Mubarak"; "Jordan's king fires govt in wake of protests"; "In Yemen, tens of thousands march against president".
The new decade has certainly begun on a very high note. Since the time I've been interested in politics (and that's a fairly long time !), I don't remember so many, simultaneous, outcries for "Revolution". While there is a stark similarity in the cause of the revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen - All have been ruled by a single autocrat for almost 30 years- plunging millions in poverty and corruption; the protests in Jordan are due to prolonged recession and burgeoning public debt. Lebanon's transition of power was because Hezbollah withdrew support from ruling coalition.
While to most observers it may look like a expression of popular public sentiment, the consequences arising out of these govt changes may be the beginning of a rapidly changing political equation in the Middle-East. I don't know how many would have noticed but all of the countries mentioned above - Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen were till now or are seen as pro-American Arab powers. The only major name missing is Saudi Arabia ( Who knows a change may be underway !).
America was shrewd enough to have its puppets in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon (which share border with Israel !) - to maintain balance of power in Middle-East (Syria-Iran vs the Pro-Americans). Yemen - which is Arab world's perhaps poorest nation and perhaps Al-Qaeda's next HO - is ruled by Ali Saleh who is seen as pro-West and major American ally in war against terror. Tunisia's despot was perhaps supported as he was seen as a secular person and pro-liberalization (markets for US!).
The tables have turned now. Muslim Brotherhood(MB) is emerging a strong contender in Egypt and Jordan. MB is seen as non-violent but conservationist and does not believe its at war with the West but whether it has ties to terrorism is disputed.(Wikipedia !). The emergence of Hizbollah which has the backing of Iran and Syria would surely be giving sleepless nights to US and Israel by now. If US loses support in Yemen, it can happily forget about eliminating Al-Qaeda . As with Tunisia, it borders Algeria. (Algeria is recovering from fighting between state authorities and Islamist militants). There are fears that political instability in Tunisia will leave it vulnerable to infiltration by disbanded terrorist groups.
With its pawns falling one by one, its time for US to re-think its strategy in the Middle-East. What remains to be seen is whether the protests were only and only pro-democracy / pro-reforms or did anti-Americanism fueled the fire. Even if the native people of these countries would like to keep it as a pro-reformist movement, would the politicians who take over be prudent enough to keep religion separate from state? Does corruption, illiteracy and poverty not make these states perfect playgrounds for likes of Al-Qaeda? Perhaps the coming years would see a real test of diplomacy for US and as for Israel - I would rather not think about it !
Still supporting the revolutions ?? Give it a thought....
The new decade has certainly begun on a very high note. Since the time I've been interested in politics (and that's a fairly long time !), I don't remember so many, simultaneous, outcries for "Revolution". While there is a stark similarity in the cause of the revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen - All have been ruled by a single autocrat for almost 30 years- plunging millions in poverty and corruption; the protests in Jordan are due to prolonged recession and burgeoning public debt. Lebanon's transition of power was because Hezbollah withdrew support from ruling coalition.
While to most observers it may look like a expression of popular public sentiment, the consequences arising out of these govt changes may be the beginning of a rapidly changing political equation in the Middle-East. I don't know how many would have noticed but all of the countries mentioned above - Tunisia, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen were till now or are seen as pro-American Arab powers. The only major name missing is Saudi Arabia ( Who knows a change may be underway !).
America was shrewd enough to have its puppets in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon (which share border with Israel !) - to maintain balance of power in Middle-East (Syria-Iran vs the Pro-Americans). Yemen - which is Arab world's perhaps poorest nation and perhaps Al-Qaeda's next HO - is ruled by Ali Saleh who is seen as pro-West and major American ally in war against terror. Tunisia's despot was perhaps supported as he was seen as a secular person and pro-liberalization (markets for US!).
The tables have turned now. Muslim Brotherhood(MB) is emerging a strong contender in Egypt and Jordan. MB is seen as non-violent but conservationist and does not believe its at war with the West but whether it has ties to terrorism is disputed.(Wikipedia !). The emergence of Hizbollah which has the backing of Iran and Syria would surely be giving sleepless nights to US and Israel by now. If US loses support in Yemen, it can happily forget about eliminating Al-Qaeda . As with Tunisia, it borders Algeria. (Algeria is recovering from fighting between state authorities and Islamist militants). There are fears that political instability in Tunisia will leave it vulnerable to infiltration by disbanded terrorist groups.
With its pawns falling one by one, its time for US to re-think its strategy in the Middle-East. What remains to be seen is whether the protests were only and only pro-democracy / pro-reforms or did anti-Americanism fueled the fire. Even if the native people of these countries would like to keep it as a pro-reformist movement, would the politicians who take over be prudent enough to keep religion separate from state? Does corruption, illiteracy and poverty not make these states perfect playgrounds for likes of Al-Qaeda? Perhaps the coming years would see a real test of diplomacy for US and as for Israel - I would rather not think about it !
Still supporting the revolutions ?? Give it a thought....
Sahi post hai bhai... badi knowledge hai tereko duniya ki politics ki...
ReplyDeletemujhe to egypt se zada Pakistan ki chinta hai... tunisia mein to vunerable hai... but our neighbor has fallen at the hands of the fundamentalist...
Paki is already a failed state...aaj kal sab kuch gobalized hai...how can fundamentalism be left behind..? ;)
ReplyDeletesahi hai bhaya !:)
ReplyDeleteEconomist echoes my views on Arab Spring http://www.economist.com/node/21541404 !
ReplyDelete